News and Politics Forum

Qwinn wrote:

McCain won't even have to try hard to win against Obama in the general.  It'll be a blowout.  At least Reagan v. Carter levels, if not Reagan v. Mondale.

Congress is gonna teh suck though.

Qwinn

Popular or electoral?

Qwinn wrote:

Electoral.

Qwinn

LOL

Reagan vs. Mondale?  That was 49-1.

You think McCain is going to turn all those Kerry/Gore blue states red?  Srsly?

I said at least Reagan CARTER, if NOT Reagan Mondale.  I think McCain will do better than Reagan did against Carter, but not as well as he did against Mondale.

Qwinn

Last edited by Qwinn (05-22-2008 07:08 AM)

Qwinn wrote:

I said at least Reagan CARTER, if NOT Reagan Mondale.  I think McCain will do better than Reagan did against Carter, but not as well as he did against Mondale.

Qwinn

You mentioned both, so I posted the electoral maps of both.

Ok then, 45 or 6 to what, 4?  5?

I think that's a wildly optimistic prediction but I've been wrong about everything this election, so maybe you're right...

Kinda doubt it though.

Last edited by dubfan (05-22-2008 01:06 PM)

Huh, I thought Carter had actually done a bit better than that, so much so that on a quick look I thought those were both maps of Reagan Mondale.  Ah well.  I'll step back from that a bit then, conditionally - and the condition is that there won't be a spoiler leftist third party candidate like Anderson to siphon off 6-7% of the vote from the Democrat.  If there -is- such a candidate - and right now I'm betting there will be - then "at least Reagan Carter" stands.

Nice shades you've got there, Qwinn.

You seem to have mistaken me for someone who likes McCain.  You also seem to have ignored my point about how badly Congress is going to suck.

My shades are anything but pink, believe me.  My opinion on the presidential election is based on the two following facts: 

1)  McCain has been getting a blowjob from the press for a decade for being their favorite Republican-Who-Spits-On-Other-Republicans "Maverick".  And moreso in order to get him the nomination.  Even they can't undo so much of their own work in so few months between now and the General.

2)  Obama is the worst, most unelectable Presidential Candidate in U.S. history.  I didn't think it would be possible to nominate someone markedly worse than John Kerry, but holy shit if the Democrats haven't gone and done just that.  It's utterly amazing.

Neither of those is indicative of a sunny or optimistic outlook on the world.  Quite the opposite.

Qwinn

Lets just make this thread a "three memes which arent helping the gop at this point" thread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbGkxcY7YFU

Proposterous. Ludicrous. Outrageous.

Last edited by SoulWrangler (05-22-2008 02:50 PM)

It's that gay black dude singing "What? What? In the butt?". I don't know what it has to do with the discussion at hand.

???

I'm just curious Qwinn, are you basing your opinion on anything but gut instincts? Most polls I've seen show Obama beating McCain in the general, or at least show the two candidates very close to even. Have you seen something that makes you think different, or are you just guessing?

Example polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … a-225.html


If you'll notice, the real clear politics polling results list the results from a bunch of different polls, most of which show a very close race. Based on this information, I'd be surprised if it's a landslide victory for either candidate on the magnitude you're suggesting. McCain/Clinton is another matter entirely, although I still doubt it would be a landslide.

Qwinn wrote:

But even that will be easily countered by a Nader or other third party runner that will bleed more from the left than the right, which I believe is quite likely.  Even Ron Paul, who would be most likely to bleed from both sides, would still bleed more from the left than right IMO.

Qwinn

I think I disagree on both accounts.

We won't see any 3rd party candidate on the left taking a significant chunk out of the Obama vote.  Seriously -- you think there's anyone who voted for Nader in 2000 who won't vote for Obama in 2008?  That's a pipe dream. 

And I *do* think that Ron Paul is going to damage the GOP.  I know plenty of otherwise intelligent people (most of them right-leaning) who think Ron Paul is just great.  They know nothing about his conspiradroid antics, and his associations with characters like Alex Jones, and the 9/11 "truth" movement, etc.  They like his neo-isolationism (or is that paleo-isolationism?) and focus on the Constitution and fiscal restraint.

People from the left (I mean, the liberal left) are going to choke on Paul because he's very conservative on the cultural issues.  Paul's supporters on the "left" really aren't really liberal as much as they're just plain nuts.

And I remain convinced we haven't heard the last from the Paulbots.  They're still out there, maneuvering at the grassroots level to get their people seated as GOP delegates.  Yes, they'll be bound to vote for McCain but they are sure going to cause a stir.  Last time I mentioned it here everyone pooh-poohed it but there's a shitstorm coming for the GOP convention -- believe it.

My gut tells me it's going to be another nail-biter -- most of the level-headed pollsters & analysts who look at the electoral battle don't see huge red/blue shifts.  It's going to come down to a few key battleground states -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. -- again.

Obama may be a weak candidate -- I happen to think he is -- but he's got a pile of money to play with between now and November, and the MSM solidly in his corner.  Plus, he is going to spur turnout numbers for the Dems like no one's ever seen.  The problem is, I think most of that will be in blue states, so it won't make much net difference, electorally.

Good article from Ambinder in The Atlantic:

Some Thoughts On A Hypothetical Constitutional Crisis

06 Jun 2008 03:00 pm

Strategists for both John McCain and Barack Obama are chewing over a hypothetical scenario wherein Barack Obama recieves millions more votes than John McCain, but, because of the distribution of votes in the electoral college, McCain would become the president. Shades of 2000, of course. The momentum to abolish the electoral college has abated in mainstream debates, and the Democratic Party, not wanting to look like sore-winner-losers, never took up the cause even though Al Gore received more votes than George W. Bush.

One Republican who has advised the McCain campaign thinks the country "can stand that sort of thing once every 100 years, but not twice in 8 years—especially with the Republicans winning every time."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arc … hetica.php

This plays into my point about Obama spurring record turnout (which seems likely) -- but in mostly blue states, or in red states where the additional turnout may not give him a win.  So, he wins the popular vote comfortably (by a greater margin than Gore did), but loses the electoral vote.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Does McCain step down (Ambinder thinks it's a possibility -- although he's mum on exactly how that would work Constitutionally)?

Are there riots in the streets?

The long promised red vs. blue state civil war?

Susan Sarandon & Sean Penn FINALLY leaving for France?